Application of the FEMA-P58 methodology for regional earthquake loss prediction

Earthquake-induced building collapses and casualties have been effectively controlled in the last two decades. However, earthquake-induced economic losses have continued to rise. Following the objective and procedure of next-generation performance-based seismic design, the economic loss prediction method proposed by FEMA-P58 is extended to regional earthquake loss prediction in this study. The engineering demand parameters for a large number of buildings within a region are efficiently obtained through nonlinear time history analysis using multi-story concentrated-mass shear models. The building data, including structural and nonstructural components, are obtained through field investigation, structural and architectural drawings, and default database published in the FEMA-P58 document. A case study of Tsinghua University campus in Beijing is performed to demonstrate the implementation and advantage using proposed FEMA-P58 method for regional earthquake loss prediction. The results show the advancement in loss simulation for a region, and in identifying the influence of the different ground motion characteristics (e.g., velocity pulse) on the regional loss.