Chemical equipment failure probability correction model based on the Multilayer Grey Evaluation Method

At present, the role of basic leak probability of chemical equipment cannot be distinguished from the influence of many other factors on failure probability in the petrochemical field. Due to the defects in other methods, in this study, by applying Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and introducing grey theories, the chemical equipment failure probability correction model based on the multi-layer grey evaluation method was proposed. By applying AHP, six first level indicators including safety management, production equipment, process, production environment, natural environment, and personal quality were analyzed, as well as twenty-seven second level indicators. The influence of various factors in the chemical equipment failure system was obtained. Then, the correction factor value was calculated according to grey system theories, and the correction coefficient was applied to correct the failure probability. By taking a vinyl chloride tank of a chlor-alkali company as an example, the results indicated that the corrected factor value of failure probability for the tank was 3.335, the correction coefficient was 1.25, and the actual failure probability of the tank was larger than the basic leak probability. This method provides a new way to measure the failure probability correction, and has a theoretical significance and practical value on accurate calculation of the quantitative risk evaluation.