Recent cooling and recession of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L) Karst) in the forest-alpine tundra ecotone of the Swedish Scandes

Repeated crown condition surveys, 1974-94, of subalpine clonal groups of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) were carried out in the Swedish Scandes. Complementary analyses concerned radial and vertical growth, sexual regeneration and range limit responses of other plant species. Significant defoliation of spruce progressed linearly over the period of study, reaching cumulative values of about 85%. It is inferred that defoliation was preconditioned by decreasing radial growth since the thermal climax in 1937 and was proximately initiated by the extremely cold winter of 1965/66 and paralleled by consistently declining radial growth and staggering vertical increase. It appears that severe and prolonged ground freezing invoked winter desiccation (xylem cavitation), extensive needle loss and reduced radial growth. Hypothetically, from circumstantial evidence, these processes are interrelated in a positive feedback system, implying increasing sensitivity to climatic stress and decreasing ability to take advantage of positive climatic anomalies. Thus, the total demise of the supranival stems is cautiously predicted, by linear regression of the 20-yr defoliation pattern, to be less than a decade ahead. The recession of Ii abies, clearly relevant in a landscape perspective, conforms with analogous responses of Pinus sylvestris L. and Betula pubescens Ehrh. ssp. tortuosa (Ledeb.) Nyman and a significant altitudinal range-limit retraction of certain silvine field-layer species. The structural development examined in this study concurs with long-term climate cooling and cold events and strongly contrasts with simulations of the performance of this system in response to a putative enhanced 'greenhouse' effect.