The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

被引：973

作者：

Burrows, Michael T. ^{[1
]}

Schoeman, David S. ^{[2
,3
]}

Buckley, Lauren B. ^{[4
]}

Moore, Pippa ^{[5
,6
]}

Poloczanska, Elvira S. ^{[7
]}

Brander, Keith M. ^{[8
]}

Brown, Chris ^{[7
,9
]}

Bruno, John F. ^{[4
]}

Duarte, Carlos M. ^{[10
,11
]}

Halpern, Benjamin S. ^{[12
]}

Holding, Johnna ^{[11
]}

Kappel, Carrie V. ^{[12
]}

Kiessling, Wolfgang ^{[13
]}

O'Connor, Mary I. ^{[14
,15
]}

Pandolfi, John M. ^{[16
]}

Parmesan, Camille ^{[17
]}

Schwing, Franklin B. ^{[18
]}

Sydeman, William J. ^{[19
]}

Richardson, Anthony J. ^{[7
,9
,20
]}

机构：

[1] Scottish Assoc Marine Sci, Scottish Marine Inst, Dept Ecol, Oban PA37 1QA, Argyll, Scotland

[2] Univ Ulster, Environm Sci Res Inst, Sch Environm Sci, Coleraine BT52 1SA, Londonderry, North Ireland

[3] Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Univ, Dept Zool, ZA-6031 Port Elizabeth, South Africa

[4] Univ N Carolina, Dept Biol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA

[5] Aberystwyth Univ, Inst Biol Environm & Rural Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3DA, Dyfed, Wales

[6] Edith Cowan Univ, Ctr Marine Ecosyst Res, Perth, WA 6027, Australia

[7] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org Marine & Atmospher, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia

[8] Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources, Charlottenlund, Denmark

[9] Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

[10] Univ Western Australia, Oceans Inst, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia

[11] Univ Balearic Isl, Dept Global Change Res, Inst Mediterraneo Estudios Avanzados, Consejo Super Invest Cient, Esporles 07190, Spain

[12] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA

[13] Humboldt Univ, Museum Nat Kunde, D-10115 Berlin, Germany

[14] Univ British Columbia, Dept Zool, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada

[15] Univ British Columbia, Biodivers Res Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada

[16] Univ Queensland, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Coral Reef, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

[17] Univ Texas Austin, Sect Integrat Biol, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[18] Fisheries Serv, SW Fisheries Sci Ctr, NOAA, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA

[19] Farallon Inst Adv Ecosyst Res, Petaluma, CA 94975 USA

[20] Univ Queensland, Sch Math & Phys, Ctr Applicat Nat Resource Math, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia

来源：

SCIENCE | 2011年 / 334卷 / 6056期

基金：

澳大利亚研究理事会; 英国自然环境研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

LONG-TERM CHANGES; RANGE SHIFTS; GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY; SCENARIOS; PATTERNS; IMPACTS; RATES;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1210288

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

引用

页码：652 / 655

页数：4

共 22 条

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