Application of UrbanSim to the Austin, Texas, Region: Integrated-Model Forecasts for the Year 2030

This work describes the modeling of Year 2030 land-use patterns of the Austin, Texas region by using UrbanSim, an open-source model for microscopic simulation of land development, location choices, and land values at fine spatial resolution. An accompanying travel demand model was run every five years, resulting in accessibility indexes for use in UrbanSim location choice models and CO2 emissions estimates. To appreciate UrbanSim's performance and the potential land-use, travel, and energy impacts of such policies, a business-as-usual trend scenario was compared with urban-growth-boundary and added transportation-cost-sensitivity scenarios, an expanded-highway-capacity scenario, and an added-state-highway 130 scenario. As expected, various land-use conditions, travel patterns, and energy consumption results demonstrated some sensitivity to scenario contexts. Although UrbanSim's specification limitations are multiple and its data requirements are very serious, the model does run reasonably fast and may make good sense over the longer term for interested regions with sophisticated planning staff on board to pursue. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000065. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.