Timely Decision Analysis Enabled by Efficient Social Media Modeling

Many decision problems are set in changing environments. For example, determining the optimal investment in cyber maintenance depends on whether there is evidence of an unusual vulnerability, such as "Heartbleed," that is causing an especially high rate of incidents. This gives rise to the need for timely information to update decision models so that optimal policies can be generated for each decision period. Social media provide a streaming source of relevant information, but that information needs to be efficiently transformed into numbers to enable the needed updates. This article explores the use of social media as an observation source for timely decision making. To efficiently generate the observations for Bayesian updates, we propose a novel computational method to fit an existing clustering model. The proposed method is called k-means latent Dirichlet allocation (KLDA). We illustrate the method using a cybersecurity problem. Many organizations ignore "medium" vulnerabilities identified during periodic scans. Decision makers must choose whether staff should be required to address these vulnerabilities during periods of elevated risk. Also, we study four text corpora with 100 replications and show that KLDA is associated with significantly reduced computational times and more consistent model accuracy.