Comprehensive risk assessment of deepwater drilling riser using fuzzy Petri net model

被引：58

作者：

Chang, Yuanjiang ^{[1
]}

Wu, Xiangfei ^{[1
]}

Chen, Guoming ^{[1
]}

Ye, Jihua ^{[2
]}

Chen, Bin ^{[2
]}

Xu, Liangbin ^{[3
]}

Zhou, Jianliang ^{[3
]}

Yin, Zhiming ^{[3
]}

Ren, Keren ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] China Univ Petr East China, COEST, Qingdao, Peoples R China

[2] China Natl Offshore Oil Corp, Shenzhen Branch, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

[3] China Natl Offshore Oil Corp, Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China

[4] China Natl Petr Corp, Baoji Oilfield Machinery Co LTD, Baoji, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION | 2018年 / 117卷

关键词：

Deepwater drilling riser; Risk assessment; Fuzzy petri net; Fuzzy reasoning algorithm; Combination weighting method; EMERGENCY RESPONSE; FAULT-TREE; BOW-TIE; SYSTEMS; OIL; FAILURE; SAFETY; FIRE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.psep.2018.05.021

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Drilling risers are the critical connection of subsea wellhead and the floating drilling unit. With exploration and development of oil and gas resources moving into deepwater, drilling riser operations have been characterized with high safety risk and occurrence rate of accidents causing high drilling downtime and drilling cost. In the present study, a Fuzzy Petri Net (FPN) methodology is proposed to evaluate the comprehensive risk of deepwater drilling risers. A risk index evaluation system was established based on analyses of drilling riser accidents and identification of risk factors, and the AHP-EM method was used to determine the weights of them. A 9-tuple set was defined to model drilling riser risks according to the FPN theories, and by using the fuzzy reasoning algorithm, risk values of risk factors at different levels and the integrated system were gained by iteration of state matrix. A specific case study of deepwater drilling risers of NANHAI-8 drilling unit in Liuhua oilfield in South China Sea is presented to illustrate the application of proposed approach, and some suggestions drawn from the investigation are presented to further mitigate the risk of drilling riser operations. The case study showed that FPN is a practical and reliable method in comprehensive risk evaluation of deepwater drilling riser system. (C) 2018 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：483 / 497

页数：15

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