Anomalous Winter and Summer Weather Patterns over Russia in the 21st Century as Simulated by CMIP6 Models

The recent studies relevant to cold winter atmospheric anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere are briefly reviewed, and causes for their development and possible connections with the Arctic amplification of warming are discussed. An expected frequency of occurrence of anomalous air temperature and precipitation patterns is evaluated over Northern Eurasia in the 21st century under conditions of anthropogenic growth in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The evaluation was carried out using a multi-model ensemble consisting of nine CMIP6 climate models with two scenarios of greenhouse gas forcing. The analysis revealed that warm and wet winters with frequent 0 degrees C crossing would be more frequent in Russia by the middle of the 21st century. Unfavorable conditions may result from more frequent summer hot and dry patterns in the regions of advanced farming and increased wildfires in the European part of Russia and Western Siberia. The most negative consequences of climate change may be associated with an implementation of the rough SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario at the end of the 21st century.