Influences of large-scale climatic variability on episodic tree mortality in northern Patagonia

In the context of potential-global warming, it is critical that ecologists bridge the typically local spatial scale of ecology to the regional scale of climatology by linking ecosystem responses to variations in the large-scale synoptic controls of regional climates. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, we related regional-scale tree mortality events over the past similar to 100 years to annual and decadal-scale climatic variations associated with changes in the major synoptic climatic controls of the southeastern Pacific region, including the El Ni (n) over tilde o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In nine stands of Austrocedrus chilensis, a xeric conifer, we used dendrochronological techniques to date the outermost tree ring on dead-standing and fallen trees to estimate the dates of tree death for 336 trees. To evaluate climatic conditions during periods of high tree mortality, we used regional records of precipitation and temperature from six climate stations and also used a regional set of 24 tree ring chronologies from Austrocedrus. Good preservation of the resinous wood of Austrocedrus allowed relatively precise dating of tree deaths over the past similar to 90 years. Episodes of massive tree mortality coincide with exceptionally dry springs and summers during the 1910s, 1942-1943, and the; 1950s. Although there is a general regional synchroneity of tree death associated with drought, intra-regional variations in the intensity of droughts, as interpolated and mapped from the regional network of tree ring chronologies, are also reflected by north-to-south variations in tree mortality patterns. Periods of drought and associated tree mortality during the 20th century in northern Patagonia are strongly associated with above average sea level atmospheric pressure off the coast of Chile at the same latitudes. Temperature and precipitation in northern Patagonia are highly influenced by the intensity and latitudinal position of the southeastern Pacific anticyclone, which, in turn, are greatly affected by ENSO. Tree mortality in northern Patagonia appears to be intensified by extreme events of the Southern Oscillation and is more strongly coincident with El Ni (n) over tilde o events along the coast of northern Peru. These results, in combination with previously established climatic influences on fire occurrence and tree seedling establishment, strongly link stand-level and regional-scale forest dynamic processes in northern Patagonia with variations in large-scale atmospheric conditions.