Prediction of the distribution of alpine tree species under climate change scenarios: Larix chinensis in Taibai Mountain (China)

Larix chinensis, an endangered and endemic alpine tree, occurs on Mt. Taibai in the Qinling Mountains, China. The extreme sensitivity of this species to climate change makes predicting its future distribution important. Using high-resolution remote-sensing imagery, and the Maxent model, we analysed the current distribution and forecast future distribution of L. chinensis under two climate change scenarios, IPCC A2 and IPCC B2. The results showed that three dominant climatic factors influenced the geographic distribution of L. chinensis: mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of wettest month. Currently, L. chinensis mainly concentrated at 3100 m and covers an area of 53.52 km(2). The population on the southern slope covers approximately twice the area of that on the northern slope; the model simulations indicated that the area of suitable habitat would decrease continually under two climate change scenarios, A2 and B2; the decrease was more obvious in scenario A2, and the range in scenario A2 covers approximately twice the area of that in scenario B2. Under both scenarios, L. chinensis would first be extirpated at lower elevations, and the suitable habitat of this species would move to higher elevations in the Taibai Mountains.