Quantitative Assessment of the Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Variation in the Qinling Mountains

Quantitative assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation change is important for ecosystem planning and management. To reveal spatial differences in the driving mechanisms of vegetation change in the Qinling Mountains, the changing patterns of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Qinling Mountains during 2000-2019 were investigated through trend analysis and multiple regression residuals analysis. The relative contributions of climate change and human activities on vegetation NDVI change were also quantified. The NDVI shows a significant increasing trend (0.23/10a) from 2000 to 2019 in the Qinling Mountains. The percentage of areas with increasing and decreasing trends in NDVI is 87.96% and 12.04% of the study area, respectively. The vegetation change in the Qinling Mountains is caused by a combination of climate change and human activities. The Tongguan Shiquan line is a clear dividing line in the spatial distribution of drivers of vegetation change. Regarding the vegetation improvement, the contribution of climate change and human activities to NDVI increase is 51.75% and 48.25%, respectively. In the degraded vegetation area, the contributions of climate change and human activities to the decrease in NDVI were 22.11% and 77.89%, respectively. Thus, vegetation degradation is mainly caused by human activities. The implementation of policies, such as returning farmland to forest and grass, has an important role in vegetation protection. It is suggested that further attention should be paid to the role of human activities in vegetation degradation when formulating corresponding vegetation protection measures and policies.