A growth simulation model as a support tool for conservation management strategy in a mountain protected area

The effectiveness of protected areas to conserve biodiversity depends on conservation management strategies and their application, usually to specific protected areas. This paper presents the results of an assessment of the conservation management strategy for a protected mountain area dominated by Norway spruce forests. The study was based on the prediction of future forest ecosystem development using a SYBILA growth simulation model. This model predicts the changes of forest stand over 25 and 50 years in the context of the conservation management strategy that is part of the broader management plan. The article presents a case study of acidophilous spruce forests below the alpine tree line in the Hruby Jesenik Mountains (Czech Republic), where the forest ecosystems are protected under the Natura 2000 European network and the Czech national system of protected areas. Conserving the character of forest habitats, especially those that are historically affected by humans, is the main target of conservation management strategies. Synthesizing the growth simulation results allows an assessment of the conservation management strategy in achieving management targets. The paper highlights the importance of growth simulation models as support tools for the assessment and creation of adaptive conservation management strategies in mountain protected areas.