Numerical simulation of the large-scale North American monsoon water sources

A general circulation model that includes water vapor tracer <LF>(diagnostics is used to delineate the dominant sources of water vapor for precipitation during the North American monsoon. A 15-year model simulation carried out with 1-degree horizontal resolution and time-varying sea surface temperature is able to produce reasonable large-scale features of the monsoon precipitation. Within the core of the Mexican monsoon, continental sources provide much of the water for precipitation. Away from the Mexican monsoon (eastern Mexico and Texas), continental sources generally decrease with monsoon onset. Tropical Atlantic Ocean sources of water gain influence in the southern Great Plains states, where the total precipitation decreases during the monsoon onset. Pacific Ocean sources do contribute to the monsoon but tend to be weaker after onset. Evaluating the development of the monsoons, soil water and surface evaporation prior to monsoon onset do not correlate with the eventual monsoon intensity. However, the most intense monsoons do use more local sources of water than the least intense monsoons, but only after the onset. This suggests that precipitation recycling is an important factor in monsoon intensity.