Development and Validation of a Comprehensive Multivariate Dosimetric Model for Predicting Late Genitourinary Toxicity Following Prostate Cancer Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

Purpose: Dosimetric predictors of toxicity after Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) are not well-established. We sought to develop a multivariate model that predicts Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) late grade 2 or greater genitourinary (GU) toxicity by interrogating the entire dose-volume histogram (DVH) from a large cohort of prostate cancer patients treated with SBRT on prospective trials. Methods: Three hundred and thirty-nine patients with late CTCAE toxicity data treated with prostate SBRT were identified and analyzed. All patients received 40 Gy in five fractions, every other day, using volumetric modulated arc therapy. For each patient, we examined 910 candidate dosimetric features including maximum dose, volumes of each organ [CTV, organs at risk (OARs)], V100%, and other granular volumetric/dosimetric indices at varying volumetric/dosimetric values from the entire DVH as well as ADT use to model and predict toxicity from SBRT. Training and validation subsets were generated with 90 and 10% of the patients in our cohort, respectively. Predictive accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AROC). Univariate analysis with student t-test was first performed on each candidate DVH feature. We subsequently performed advanced machine-learning multivariate analyses including classification and regression tree (CART), random forest, boosted tree, and multilayer neural network. Results: Median follow-up time was 32.3 months (range 3-98.9 months). Late grade >= 2 GU toxicity occurred in 20.1% of patients in our series. No single dosimetric parameter had an AROC for predicting late grade >= 2 GU toxicity on univariate analysis that exceeded 0.599. Optimized CART modestly improved prediction accuracy, with an AROC of 0.601, whereas other machine learning approaches did not improve upon univariate analyses. Conclusions: CART-based machine learning multivariate analyses drawing from 910 dosimetric features and ADT use modestly improves upon clinical prediction of late GU toxicity alone, yielding an AROC of 0.601. Biologic predictors may enhance predictive models for identifying patients at risk for late toxicity after SBRT.