Demography and housing demand - what can we learn from residential construction data?

被引：58

作者：

Lindh, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Malmberg, Bo ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Inst Futures Studies, S-10131 Stockholm, Sweden

[2] Stockholm Univ, Dept Human Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

来源：

JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS | 2008年 / 21卷 / 03期

关键词：

residential construction; age distribution; housing demand;

D O I：

10.1007/s00148-006-0064-0

中图分类号：

C921 [人口统计学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population's age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction, but there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry.

引用

页码：521 / 539

页数：19

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