Drivers of future urban flood risk

被引:135
作者
O'Donnell, Emily C. [1 ]
Thorne, Colin R. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
来源
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2020年 / 378卷 / 2168期
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;
关键词
urban flooding; flood foresight; extreme rainfall; climate change; source-pathway-receptor model; flood risk scenario modelling; VULNERABILITY; MANAGEMENT;
D O I
10.1098/rsta.2019.0216
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the twenty-first century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002-2004 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban asset deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in buildings and contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated) have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: loss of floodable urban spaces and indirect economic impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.
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页数:23
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