Models of the impact of dengue vaccines: A review of current research and potential approaches

被引：74

作者：

Johansson, Michael A. ^{[2
]}

Hombach, Joachim ^{[3
]}

Cummings, Derek A. T. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA

[2] US Ctr Dis Control, Div Vector Borne Dis, San Juan, PR 00920 USA

[3] WHO, Initiat Vaccine Res, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland

来源：

VACCINE | 2011年 / 29卷 / 35期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

Diff46Dengue; Vaccine; Theoretical model; Review; ANTIBODY-DEPENDENT ENHANCEMENT; SAO-PAULO STATE; HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER; TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS; REPRODUCTION NUMBER; VIRUS SEROTYPES; DISEASE-MODELS; BORNE DISEASES; YELLOW-FEVER; EPIDEMIC;

D O I：

10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.06.042

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

Vaccination reduces transmission of pathogens directly, by preventing individual infections, and indirectly, by reducing the probability of contact between infected individuals and susceptible ones. The potential combined impact of future dengue vaccines can be estimated using mathematical models of transmission. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the structure of models that accurately represent dengue transmission dynamics. Here, we review models that could be used to assess the impact of future dengue immunization programmes. We also review approaches that have been used to validate and parameterize models. A key parameter of all approaches is the basic reproduction number, R-0, which can be used to determine the critical vaccination fraction to eliminate transmission. We review several methods that have been used to estimate this quantity. Finally, we discuss the characteristics of dengue vaccines that must be estimated to accurately assess their potential impact on dengue virus transmission. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：5860 / 5868

页数：9

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