Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events

被引:459
作者
Bowman, David M. J. S. [1 ]
Williamson, Grant J. [1 ]
Abatzoglou, John T. [2 ]
Kolden, Crystal A. [3 ]
Cochrane, Mark A. [4 ]
Smith, Alistair M. S. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tasmania, Sch Biol Sci, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tas 7000, Australia
[2] Univ Idaho, Coll Sci, Moscow, ID 83844 USA
[3] Univ Idaho, Coll Nat Resources, Moscow, ID 83844 USA
[4] South Dakota State Univ, Geospatial Sci Ctr Excellence, Brookings, SD USA
来源
NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION | 2017年 / 1卷 / 03期
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
CLIMATE-CHANGE; FIRE SEVERITY; MEGA-FIRES; SCIENCE; DANGER;
D O I
10.1038/s41559-016-0058
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Extreme wildfires have substantial economic, social and environmental impacts, but there is uncertainty whether such events are inevitable features of the Earth's fire ecology or a legacy of poor management and planning. We identify 478 extreme wildfire events defined as the daily clusters of fire radiative power from MODIS, within a global 10 x 10 km lattice, between 2002 and 2013, which exceeded the 99.997th percentile of over 23 million cases of the EFRP100 km(-2) in the MODIS record. These events are globally distributed across all flammable biomes, and are strongly associated with extreme fire weather conditions. Extreme wildfire events reported as being economically or socially disastrous (n = 144) were concentrated in suburban areas in flammable-forested biomes of the western United States and southeastern Australia, noting potential biases in reporting and the absence of globally comprehensive data of fire disasters. Climate change projections suggest an increase in days conducive to extreme wildfire events by 20 to 50% in these disaster-prone landscapes, with sharper increases in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere and European Mediterranean Basin.
引用
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页数:6
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