Alpine plants are on the move: Quantifying distribution shifts of Australian alpine plants through time

Aim Alpine plant species' distributions are thought to have been shifting to higher elevations in response to climate change. By moving upslope, species can occupy cooler and more suitable environments as climate change warms their current ranges. Despite evidence of upslope migration in the northern hemisphere, there is limited evidence for elevational shifts in southern hemisphere plants. Our study aimed to determine if alpine plants in Australia have migrated upslope in the last 2 to 6 decades. Location Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia. Methods We collated historic occurrence data for 36 Australian alpine plant species from herbarium specimens and historic field observations and combined these historic data with modern occurrence data collected in the field. Results Eleven of the thirty-six species had shifted upslope in mean elevation and four species showed downslope elevational shifts. The rate of change for upslope shifts varied between 4 and 10 m per year and the rate of change for most downslope shifts was between 4 and 8 m per year, with one species shifting downslope at a high rate of 18 m per year. Additionally, some species showed shifts upward in their upper range edge and/or upward or downward shifts in their lower range edge. Five species also showed range contractions in the difference between their lower and upper range edges over time, while two showed range expansions. We found no significant differences in elevational shifts through time among herbaceous dicotyledons, herbaceous monocotyledons and shrubs. Main Conclusions Plant elevational shifts are occurring rapidly in the Australian alpine zone. This may allow species to persist under climate change. However, if current warming trends continue, several species within the Australian alpine zone will likely run out of suitable habitat within a century.