BEM-FORM Model for the Probabilistic Response of Circular Tunnels in Elastic Media

Problems involving cavities or excavations are widely addressed in geomechanics, in both analytical and numerical approaches. The boundary element method (BEM) is well-known as an interesting choice for half plane problems, providing accurate results at a low computational cost. This work deals with the probabilistic analysis of circular tunnels embedded in elastic media, coupling a BEM formulation to a structural reliability model. The gravitational loading and material parameters are treated as random variables, whose statistical description is taken from the literature. The loadings considered include the vertical overburden stress and the lateral earth pressure. Regarding the reliability evaluation, first order reliability method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulation technique are employed, being compared in terms of accuracy. Regarding the BEM model, the Multiple Reciprocity Method (MRM) is used in the evaluation of domain integrals, and the subregion technique is employed for the analysis of the tunnel lining. Some analyses are presented, in order to validate the coupled BEM-FORM model and apply it to the estimation of failure probability, evaluating the influence of the random variables taken into account in the probabilistic response.