Predicting the potential distribution of alien pests in the UK under global climate change:: Diabrotica virgifera virgifera

Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, the western corn rootworm, a North American species, was first found in Yugoslavia in 1992, and has since spread widely in central Europe. In 2002, it was found near Paris, raising concerns regarding its potential threat to UK maize crops. The computer program CLIMEX was used to identify the critical parameter - accumulated temperature - which defines the northward limit of distribution of D. virgifera virgifera in North America, and this threshold was then applied to the UK, at improved spatial and temporal resolutions, under current and predicted future climates. Under current climate conditions, D. virgifera virgifera, appears to be at the edge of its range in the UK but by 2050, under global warming, a large area of SE England will be suitable for this species.