Explaining global patterns and trends in marine protected area (MPA) development

The relative paucity and heterogeneous distribution of marine protected areas (MPAs) indicates the need for better understanding of factors that foster MPA establishment at local, sub-national, and national levels. The relationship between national-level MPA establishment and geographic, ecological, social, and political factors that may drive patterns and trends in MPA establishment were assessed. A country's coastline length is the strongest predictor of both the number and spatial extent of MPAs. Controlling for coastline, the Human Development Index (HDI) and spatial overlap with designated conservation priority areas are positively correlated with MPA establishment. Surprisingly, some factors influencing MPA establishment in case studies, such as percentage of fishers within a population, were not correlated with MPA establishment on a national scale. These national dynamics explain a relatively small proportion of variation, however, indicating that other biological or social factors, as well as sub-national processes, also influence MPA establishment. Positive and negative outliers illuminate the importance of policy engagement at both national and local levels. Ensuring a supportive enabling environment at the national or even multi-national level can enhance success at the local level. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.