Flood study of industrial site by extreme flood risk: uncertainties with hydrologic and hydraulic extreme values

被引：6

作者：

Alliau, Damien ^{[1
]}

De Saint Seine, Jacques ^{[1
]}

Lang, Michel ^{[2
]}

Sauquet, Eric ^{[2
]}

Renard, Benjamin ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Compagnie Natl Rhone, F-69316 Lyon 04, France

[2] Irstea, CS 70077, F-69626 Villeurbanne, France

来源：

HOUILLE BLANCHE-REVUE INTERNATIONALE DE L EAU | 2015年 / 02期

关键词：

Predictive Distribution; propagation of uncertainties; Monte Carlo method; Promethee; Crue; hydrograph;

D O I：

10.1051/lhb/20150021

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

Under complementary assessment conducted after the Japanese events of 2011, operator of an industrial site wanted to study natural extreme flood. Operator commissioned a study by CNR and Irstea: discharge evaluation of increasing critical water level of the industrial platform in case of Rhone flooding, with associated uncertainties and probability. The study covered the following points: 1 / determination of the water level-discharge relationship near to the platform and the flooding flow; 2 / calculating the predictive distribution of floods by fitting a GEV law on data available at Saint-Etienne-des-Sorts (1845-2011), Viviers (1920-2011) and Beaucaire (1841-2011), 3 / propagation of uncertainties in hydraulic modeling from the coupling of the statistical tool Promethee from IRSN and hydraulic calculation code 1D Crue from CNR. Simulations using 7000 statistical shots on 9 parameters can help us to identify and to quantify dispersion results according to the variation of one or more parameters at once.

引用

页码：67 / 74

页数：8

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