Impact of cloud microphysics on hurricane track forecasts

被引：80

作者：

Fovell, Robert G. ^{[1
]}

Su, Hui ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[2] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2007年 / 34卷 / 24期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2007GL031723

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) at operational resolutions (30 and 12 km) reveal significant track sensitivity to cloud microphysical details, rivaling variation seen in the National Hurricane Center's multimodel consensus forecast. Microphysics appears to directly or indirectly modulate vortex characteristics including size and winds at large radius and possibly other factors involved in hurricane motion. Idealized simulations made at higher (3 km) resolution help isolate the microphysical influence.

引用

页数：5

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