Predicting Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Surface Antigen Seroclearance in HBV e Antigen-Negative Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B: External Validation of a Scoring System

被引：14

作者：

Liu, Jessica ^{[1
]}

Tseng, Tai-Chung ^{[2
,9
]}

Yang, Hwai-I ^{[1
,10
,11
]}

Lee, Mei-Hsuan ^{[3
]}

Batrla-Utermann, Richard ^{[13
]}

Jen, Chin-Lan ^{[1
]}

Lu, Sheng-Nan ^{[12
]}

Wang, Li-Yu ^{[4
]}

You, San-Lin ^{[1
]}

Chen, Pei-Jer ^{[5
,7
]}

Chen, Chien-Jen ^{[1
,8
]}

Kao, Jia-Horng ^{[5
,6
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Acad Sinica, Genom Res Ctr, Taipei 115, Taiwan

[2] Buddhist Tzuchi Med Fdn, Taipei Tzuchi Hosp, Dept Internal Med, Div Gastroenterol, Taipei, Taiwan

[3] Natl Yang Ming Univ, Inst Clin Med, Taipei 112, Taiwan

[4] Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Med, MacKay Coll Med, Taipei 10764, Taiwan

[5] Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Med, Dept Internal Med, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Taipei, Taiwan

[6] Natl Taiwan Univ, Hepatitis Res Ctr, Coll Med, Taipei 10764, Taiwan

[7] Natl Taiwan Univ, Grad Inst Clin Med, Coll Med, Taipei 10764, Taiwan

[8] Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Grad Inst Epidemiol & Preventat Med, Taipei 10764, Taiwan

[9] Tzu Chi Univ, Sch Med, Hualien, Taiwan

[10] China Med Univ Hosp Taichung, Mol & Genom Epidemiol Ctr, Taichung, Taiwan

[11] China Med Univ, Grad Inst Clin Med Sci, Taichung, Taiwan

[12] Chang Gung Mem Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

[13] Roche Diagnost, Basel, Switzerland

来源：

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2015年 / 211卷 / 10期

关键词：

epidemiology; viral hepatitis; prediction model; HEPATOCELLULAR-CARCINOMA; FOLLOW-UP; RISK; DETERMINANTS; HBSAG; DNA;

D O I：

10.1093/infdis/jiu659

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

Methods.aEuro integral The development cohort included 2491 untreated participants from the community-based REVEAL-HBV study, who were HBeAg negative, anti-hepatitis C virus negative, and cirrhosis free. The independent validation cohort consisted of 1934 hospital-based individuals from the National Taiwan University Hospital. Clinical markers included in the model were age and serum HBV DNA and HBsAg levels. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create the prediction model. Results.aEuro integral A prediction score ranging from 0 to 27 was developed. Predicted probabilities of 5- and 10-year HBsAg seroclearance ranged from 0.95% to 30.49% and from 2.58% to 62.52%, respectively. When applied to the independent validation cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the 5- and 10-year prediction of HBsAg seroclearance in the validation cohort were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], .76-.88) and 0.74 (95% CI, .70-.78). Model fit was still adequate, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests. Conclusions.aEuro integral A clinically applicable prediction score for HBsAg seroclearance was developed and externally validated. This model can assist clinicians in further stratifying risk groups.

引用

页码：1566 / 1573

页数：8

共 35 条

[1] Chronic hepatitis B: whom to treat and for how long? Propositions, challenges, and future directions [J].