Self-rated health and a healthy lifestyle are the most important predictors of survival in elderly women

Objective: to test the hypothesis that morbidity and health related behavioural factors are stronger than social factors as predictors of death among older women. Methods: we used data from 12,422 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Womens Health who were aged 7075 in 1996. Proportional hazards models of survival up to 31 October 2005 were fitted separately for the whole cohort and those women who were initially in good health. Results: among the whole cohort, 18.7% died during the follow_up period. The strongest predictor of death was poor or fair self-rated health (with 52.3% and 28.0%, respectively, of women in these categories dying). Among the women in good health at baseline 11.5% died, with current cigarette smoking (hazard ratio HR = 2.19, 95% confidence interval (1.71, 2.81), physical inactivity (HR = 1.45 (1.17, 1.81)), and age (HR = 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) per year) as statistically significant predictors of death. Discussion: among older women, current health and health related behaviours are stronger predictors than social factors of relatively early mortality. Adopting a healthier lifestyle, by doing more exercise and not smoking, is beneficial even in old age.