Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

被引：325

作者：

Lim, Stephen S. ^{[1
]}

Allen, Kate ^{[1
]}

Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ^{[5
,7
]}

Dandona, Lalit ^{[1
,9
]}

Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. ^{[1
]}

Fullman, Nancy ^{[1
]}

Gething, Peter W. ^{[10
]}

Goldberg, Ellen M. ^{[1
]}

Hay, Simon I. ^{[1
,11
]}

Holmberg, Mollie ^{[1
]}

Kinfu, Yohannes ^{[15
]}

Kutz, Michael J. ^{[1
]}

Larson, Heidi J. ^{[1
,16
]}

Liang, Xiaofeng ^{[20
]}

Lopez, Alan D. ^{[1
,21
]}

Lozano, Rafael ^{[29
]}

McNellan, Claire R. ^{[1
]}

Mokdad, Ali H. ^{[1
]}

Mooney, Meghan D. ^{[1
]}

Naghavi, Mohsen ^{[1
]}

Olsen, Helen E. ^{[1
]}

Pigott, David M. ^{[1
]}

Salomon, Joshua A. ^{[30
]}

Vos, Theo ^{[1
]}

Wang, Haidong ^{[1
]}

Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ^{[37
]}

Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ^{[40
]}

Abbafati, Cristiana ^{[41
]}

Abbas, Kaja M. ^{[42
]}

Abd-Allah, Foad ^{[43
]}

Abdulle, Abdishakur M. ^{[44
]}

Abraham, Biju ^{[45
]}

Abubakar, Ibrahim ^{[46
]}

Abu-Raddad, Laith J. ^{[50
]}

Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. ^{[51
]}

Abyu, Gebre Yitayih ^{[53
]}

Achoki, Tom ^{[1
]}

Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi ^{[54
,57
,58
]}

Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi

Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko ^{[59
]}

Afshin, Ashkan ^{[1
,60
]}

Agarwal, Arnav ^{[64
,65
]}

Agrawal, Anurag ^{[66
,67
]}

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad ^{[68
,70
]}

Ahmadieh, Hamid ^{[71
,73
]}

Ahmed, Kedir Yimam ^{[74
]}

Akanda, Ali Shafqat ^{[75
]}

Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola ^{[56
,76
]}

Akinyemiju, Tomi F. ^{[77
]}

Akseer, Nadia ^{[7
,62
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA

[2] Univ Washington, Sch Dent, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[3] Univ Washington, Harborview Injury Prevent & Res Ctr, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[4] Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[5] Aga Khan Univ, Ctr Excellence Women & Child Hlth, Karachi, Pakistan

[6] Aga Khan Univ, Karachi, Pakistan

[7] Hosp Sick Children, Ctr Global Child Hlth, Toronto, ON, Canada

[8] Publ Hlth Fdn India, Ctr Control Chron Condit, New Delhi, India

[9] Publ Hlth Fdn India, New Delhi, India

[10] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[11] Univ Oxford, Li Ka Shing Ctr Hlth Informat & Discovery, Oxford Big Data Inst, Oxford, England

[12] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England

[13] Univ Oxford, Musculoskeletal Biomed Res Ctr, Oxford, England

[14] Univ Oxford, Oxford, England

[15] Univ Canberra, Fac Hlth, Ctr Res & Action Publ Hlth, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[16] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[17] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Global Mental Hlth, London, England

[18] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England

[19] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Ctr Chron & Noncommunicable Dis Control & Pr, Beijing, Peoples R China

[20] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China

[21] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Populat & Global Hlth, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[22] Univ Melbourne, Dept Paediat, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[23] Univ Melbourne, Peter Doherty Inst Infect & Immun, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[24] Univ Melbourne, Dept Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[25] Univ Melbourne, Murdoch Childrens Res Inst, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[26] Univ Melbourne, Dept Pediat, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[27] Univ Melbourne, Inst Hlth & Ageing, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[28] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[29] Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

[30] Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[31] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Dept Global Hlth & Social Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[32] Harvard Univ, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[33] Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[34] Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[35] Harvard Univ, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Harvard Med Sch, Div Network Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[36] Harvard Univ, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[37] Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[38] Univ Queensland, Sch Dent, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[39] Univ Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[40] Jimma Univ, Jimma, Ethiopia

[41] Univ Rome, Rome, Italy

[42] Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA USA

[43] Cairo Univ, Dept Neurol, Cairo, Egypt

[44] New York Univ Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates

[45] NMSM Govt Coll Kalpetta, Kalpetta, Kerala, India

[46] UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, England

[47] UCL, Ctr Publ Hlth Data Sci, Inst Hlth Informat, London, England

[48] UCL, Farr Inst Hlth Informat Res, London, England

[49] UCL, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, London, England

[50] Weill Cornell Med Coll Qatar, Infect Dis Epidemiol Grp, Doha, Qatar

来源：

LANCET | 2016年 / 388卷 / 10053期

关键词：

SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS; NATIONAL INCIDENCE; MENTAL-HEALTH; MORTALITY; PROGRESS; OFFLINE; MALARIA; HIV; SDG;

D O I：

10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the nonMDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

引用

页码：1813 / 1850

页数：38

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