In the wake of radical right electoral success: a cross-country comparative study of anti-immigration attitudes over time

This paper tests the theoretically assumed relationship between the parliamentary presence of radical right parties (RRPs) and anti-immigration attitudes over time. Data come from six rounds of the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2012. Using multi-level models with applications for repeated cross-sectional data, the study examines the implications of changes tied to the political advancements of the radical right with a focus on three possible scenarios: people's attitudes about immigration have generally become more negative, opposition towards immigration has become more dependent on immigrants' ethnicity, and attitudes towards immigration have become more polarised. Contrary to expectations, it is found that neither the presence, the representational strength, nor the nationalistic framing of an RRP affect opposition towards immigration over time. Thus, the conclusion is that the RRPs, so far, have not driven anti-immigration attitudes in Europe. Possible explanations for these results are discussed in the concluding section.