CO2 Emissions Inventory and Its Uncertainty Analysis of China's Industrial Parks: A Case Study of the Maanshan Economic and Technological Development Area

The Chinese government has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Industrial parks are the key to achieving the carbon peak and neutrality in industrial sectors. Establishing the CO2 emissions inventory is the first step to achieve the carbon peak in industrial parks. In this study, a comprehensive CO2 emissions inventory was established for industrial parks, including three parts: energy consumption, industrial process, and waste disposal. We considered scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions and established an uncertainty analysis framework. Accordingly, scope 1 covered the emissions within the park boundary, scope 2 emissions covered those resulting from electricity and heat usage inside the boundary, and scope 3 included those indirect emissions beyond the boundary. The Maanshan Economic and Technological Development Area (MDA), a typical booming national eco-industrial park of China, was chosen for this case study. The results showed that the MDA CO2 emissions increased yearly, from 376,836.57 tons in 2016 to 772,170.93 tons in 2021. From the industrial structure perspective, heavy industry contributed the highest emissions. By dividing the emissions into scope 1, 2, and 3, scope 2 could be identified as the largest emissions source. In addition, we conducted inventory uncertainty analyses incorporated by activity levels, emissions factors, and unspecific factors. Overall, these results may promote the establishment of greenhouse gas accounting standards for Chinese industrial parks.