Evaluation of epithelial cell proliferation rate in normal-appearing colonic mucosa as a high-risk marker for colorectal cancer

To determine whether the colonic epithelial proliferation rate is useful as a marker for colorectal cancer, we measured the Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in normal-appearing mucosa from the sigmoid and ascending colon in patients with two or more tumors (early cancers, which are defined as tumors the depth of invasion of which is limited to mucosal layer or submucosal layer, adenomas, or both). The association of baseline LI with the risk of development of colon tumors 2 years after endoscopic removal was assessed by cohort analysis. The presence of two or more tumors was defined as occurrence. One hundred and six specimens from the sigmoid colon and 130 from the ascending colon from 246 subjects (203 males and 43 females) were used for analysis. The patients with higher upper-third LI in the normal-appearing mucosa in the sigmoid colon, but not in the ascending colon, had significantly more tumors at follow-up colonoscopy 2 years later (risk ratio, 3.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-10.6). Moreover, multivariate analysis showed that it was an independent factor. We concluded that the higher upper-third Ki-67 LI of normal-appearing mucosa in the sigmoid colon indicates a high risk for colorectal cancer.