Trunk muscle quality and quantity predict the development of metabolic syndrome and the increase in the number of its components in individuals without metabolic syndrome

Background and aims: The metabolic syndrome has been reported by cross-sectional studies to have an association with skeletal muscle quality and quantity. Using a longitudinal study design, this study aimed to explicate the association between muscle characteristics assessed with computed tomography (CT) and the incidence and progression of metabolic syndrome. Methods and results: In this retrospective study on a cohort of employees undergoing annual physical examinations, we evaluated data from 554 participants without metabolic syndrome. The cross-sectional skeletal muscle area was determined based on CT data at the level of the third lumbar vertebra, and the skeletal muscle density (SMD) and skeletal muscle index (SMI) were measured. The participants were divided into four study groups according to the sex-specific median values for SMI and SMD. We followed the participants for a mean period of 3.1 years. In the sex- and age-adjusted model, SMI and SMD had an interaction effect on the longitudinal change in number of metabolic syndrome components (beta = -0.074, p = 0.0727). Multiple regression analyses revealed that both low SMI and SMD was significantly associated with the change (beta = 0.131, p = 0.0281), whereas the low SMI and high SMD, and high SMI and low SMD were not. Both low SMI and SMD (hazard ratio (HR), 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.28 -4.78) showed an increased adjusted HR for incident metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: The participants with both low quality and quantity of skeletal muscles were associated with the incidence and progression of metabolic syndrome, whereas those with only low quantity or quality of skeletal muscles were not. (C) 2020 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.