The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market

We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey as of the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We find that the migrant influx has strong adverse effects on native workers in the informal sector, particularly on temporary wage workers, less-educated and young workers, women who are part-time employed and self-employed, and workers in agriculture and construction. At the same time, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector; wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase -particularly in manufacturing. Increases in product market prices and capital investment in the treatment regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector. The migrant impact on native men's total employment is null, whereas it is more adverse for women primarily because the migrant influx does not raise their employment in the formal sector -unlike for men. The adverse effects on the most vulnerable groups in the labor market and the rise in consumer prices imply that poverty might increase among these native groups.