Two waves of coeliac disease incidence in Sweden: a nationwide population-based cohort study from 1990 to 2015

Objectives To assess the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease (CD) in Sweden and examine the incidence of duodenal/jejunal biopsies with normal mucosa over time as a proxy for CD awareness and investigation. Design Nationwide population-based cohort study 1990-2015 based on biopsy reports indicating villous atrophy (VA) or normal mucosa in the duodenum/jejunum. Results We identified 44 771 individuals (63% females) with a biopsy report specifying VA and 412 279 (62% females) with a biopsy report indicating normal mucosa (without a prior biopsy indicating VA). The median age at diagnosis of CD was 28 years. The mean age-standardised incidence rate during the study period was 19.0 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 17.3 to 20.8). The incidence reached a peak in 1994 for both sexes and a second higher peak in 2002-2003 for females and in 2006 for males. The lifetime risk of developing CD was 1.8% (2.3% in females and 1.4% in males). Prior to 2015, there was a parallel rise in rates for biopsies showing normal duodenal/jejunal mucosa. Conclusions In Sweden, the incidence of CD increased until 2002-2003 in females and until 2006 in males. Since then, the incidence of CD has declined despite increasing duodenal/jejunal biopsies, suggesting that increased awareness and investigation are unlikely to elevate the incidence of the disease in Sweden. Across a lifetime, 1 in 44 females and 1 in 72 males are expected to be diagnosed with CD in Sweden, indicating a relatively high societal burden of disease.