Mud volcanoes as natural strainmeters - A working hypothesis

Due to the sub-critical status of the seismogenic crust, relatively small strain fluctuations (> 0.1 mu strain) induced by post-seismic stress redistribution could significantly affect the seismic hazard on a regional scale (tens to thousands of km) in the medium-term (months to tens of years). The physical feasibility of mud volcano monitoring for the detection of crustal strain field fluctuations is discussed. Simple physical arguments are considered to evaluate the response of the mud volcanic system, in terms liquid-outflow or gas discharge variations, to slow pore pressure changes in the reservoir. The application of a new remote sensing technique for large-scale/medium-term monitoring is also suggested.