An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks

被引：116

作者：

Su, Huai ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Jinjun ^{[1
]}

Zio, Enrico ^{[2
,3
]}

Yang, Nan ^{[1
]}

Li, Xueyi ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Zongjie ^{[1
,4
]}

机构：

[1] China Univ Petr, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China

[2] Politecn Milan, Dipartimento Energia, Via Masa 34, I-20156 Milan, Italy

[3] Univ Paris Saclay, CentraleSupelec, Fdn Elect France EDF, Chair Syst Sci & Energy Challenge, Grande Voie Vignes, F-92290 Chatenay Malabry, France

[4] Petrochina West East Gas Pipeline, Dongfushan Rd 458, Shanghai 200122, Peoples R China

来源：

APPLIED ENERGY | 2018年 / 209卷

关键词：

Natural gas network; Reliability of supply; Failure analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Consequence analysis; Graph theory; MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION; ENERGY-SYSTEMS; CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES; COMPLEX NETWORKS; DEMAND RESPONSE; VULNERABILITY; GENERATION; SECURITY; MODEL; FLOW;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.108

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

A systematic method is developed for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks. In the developed method, the integration of stochastic processes, graph theory and thermal-hydraulic simulation is performed accounting for uncertainty and complexity. The supply capacity of a pipeline network depends on the unit states and the network structure, both of which change stochastically because of stochastic failures of the units. To describe this, in this work a capacity network stochastic model is developed, based on Markov modeling and graph theory. The model is embedded in an optimization algorithm to compute the capacities of the pipeline network under different scenarios and analyze the consequences of failures of units in the system. Indices of supply reliability and risk are developed with respect to two aspects: global system and individual customers. In the case study, a gas pipeline network is considered and the results are analyzed in detail.

引用

页码：489 / 501

页数：13

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