A probabilistic model for estimating the effects of photovoltaic sources on the power systems reliability

As the power grid is continuously expanding, the increased amount of loading and the corresponding amount of generation is causing the grid to become more and more complex. The addition of intelligent devices for control and communications is also making the grid more vulnerable to failures. The addition of distributed renewable energy sources can potentially alleviate some of the stress on the grid, and help improve its reliability; however, their effects on the grid are not yet fully understood. In this paper, we study the effects of adding photovoltaic (PV) sources to the grid from a reliability perspective. We use monte carlo simulation to assess the reliability of the system in the presence of transmission line contingencies and potential cascading failures, and we use the particle swarm optimization to find the optimal placement of PV sources in the network that would maximize the system reliability. Our results show that while adding PV sources to the network can, under certain conditions, improve the system reliability, increasing the amount of PV indefinitely does not necessarily continue to improve it. There is a certain optimal amount of PV power that would improve the system reliability, and any further increase can have negative effects. 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.