Scenarios Projection of Extreme Temperature Indices in the Three Gorges for the 21st Century

The projections of extreme temperature indices (ETR, TN90 and HWDI) in the Three Gorges for the 21st century by using the global climate system models provided by PCMDI with the SRES A2,A1B and BI that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report had been analyzed in this paper. The results showed that compared to the current climate (1980 similar to 1999), ETR will possibly increase in the most of period in the 21st century, TN90 and HWDI will sharply increase. During the 21th century(2011 similar to 2100), ETR will be increased by 0.4 similar to 0.8 degrees C, TN90 increased by 13.3 similar to 17.4%,HWDI increased by 8.5 similar to 13.3 day. In the former of 21st century(2011 similar to 2040), ETR will be increased by 0.2 similar to 0.6 degrees C., TN90 increased by 5.1 similar to 7.3%, HWDI increased by 3.1 similar to 4.1 day. In the medium-term of 21st century(2041 similar to 2070), ETR will be increased by 0.4 similar to 1.0 degrees C, TN90 increased by 13.6 similar to 18.9%, HWDI increased by 7.7 similar to 12.1 day. In the latter of 21st century(2071 similar to 2100), ETR will be increased by 0.6 similar to 1.4 degrees C, TN90 increased by 19.1 similar to 28.9%, HWDI increased by 14.3 similar to 23.7 day.