Commodities and monetary policy: Implications for inflation and price level targeting

We examine the relative ability of inflation targeting and price level targeting monetary policy rules to minimize inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in a commodity-exporting country for supply and demand shocks to global commodity markets. The macroeconomic consequences of oil and non-oil primary commodities differ and affect the relative merits of the alternative monetary policy frameworks. Particularly, the consumption of refined oil products and demand-driven commodity price movements induce highly persistent inflation pressures resulting in a significant deterioration of the inflation-output gap tradeoff available to central banks. When such terms-of-trade shocks are prevalent, price level targeting is inferior to inflation targeting. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of The Society for Policy Modeling. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).