Patterns of failure in limited-stage small cell lung cancer: Implications of TNM stage for prophylactic cranial irradiation

Background and purpose: The relationship between tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage and patterns of failure in limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) remains unclear. We hypothesized that TNM stage predicts brain metastasis risk, and could inform the use of prophylactic cranial irradiation. Material and methods: We reviewed 283 patients with stage SCLC. Competing-risks regression was used to analyze local, distant, and brain failure. Multivariate analysis was used to evaluate the effect of treatment and clinical factors on failure and OS. Results: Patients with stage I or II SCLC (35% of cohort) had significantly better survival and lower risk of distant and brain metastasis, compared with stage III patients. The 5-year cumulative incidence of brain metastasis for stage and III were 12% and 26%, respectively. Stage had no correlation with local failure. On multivariate analysis, stage was independently prognostic for survival, distant metastasis risk, and brain metastasis risk. Conclusions: TNM staging predicts likelihood of distant metastasis, brain metastasis, and survival in LS-SCLC. This supports the routine use of TNM staging in clinical practice. The lower risk of brain metastasis in stage I and II SCLC suggests that prophylactic cranial irradiation could play a more limited role in treatment of early-stage disease. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.