Are Indian stock returns predictable?

被引:107
作者
Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Bannigidadmath, Deepa
机构
[1] Deakin Univ, Ctr Econ, Financial Econometr Grp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
[2] Deakin Univ, Financial Econometr Grp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
关键词
Stock returns; Predictability; Profits; Sectors; Rational asset pricing; India; BOOK-TO-MARKET; EQUITY PREMIUM; TIME-SERIES; SAMPLE; TESTS; ESTIMATOR; CHOICE;
D O I
10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.05.001
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
In this paper we show that Indian stock returns, based on industry portfolios, portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and on size, are predictable. While we discover that this predictability holds both in in-sample and out-of-sample tests, predictability is not homogenous. Some predictors are important than others and some industries and portfolios of stocks are more predictable and, therefore, more profitable than others. We also discover that a mean combination forecast approach delivers significant out-of-sample performance. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:506 / 531
页数:26
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