Determination of optimized cropping patterns according to crop yield response under baseline condition and climate-change condition

Due to water shortage, climate change, and increased water demands, the optimal allocation of agricultural water is crucial, especially during a drought period. The objective of this study is to optimize the cropping patterns in the Aidoghmush River Basin in Iran for both the baseline condition and climate-change condition. For this purpose, the genetic algorithm was applied and an optimization model was developed with the goal of maximizing the agricultural benefits for a 14-year planning horizon. The baseline condition and climate-change condition 14-year periods employed in this study are 1987-2000 and 2026-2039, respectively. The results showed that the scenarios of cropping pattern changes with consideration of the crop yield response achieved higher benefits than those for the present condition and other optimal conditions without considering the crop yield response. With considering the optimum cropping patterns based on the crop yield response, the benefits in the planning horizon increased by 46.7 and 37.8% for the baseline condition and climate-change condition, respectively, compared to the present condition. (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.