Estimating the Prevalence of Substance Use Disorders in the US Using the Benchmark Multiplier Method

IMPORTANCE Prevalence estimates of substance use disorders in the US rely on general population surveys. However, major population groups, such as homeless individuals and institutionalized individuals, are not captured by these surveys, and participants may underreport substance use. OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of substance use disorders in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The benchmark multiplier method was used to estimate the prevalence of alcohol, cannabis, opioid, and stimulant use disorders based on data from the Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) (the benchmark) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) (the multiplier) for 2018 and 2019. T-MSIS collects administrative data on Medicaid beneficiaries 12 years and older with full or comprehensive benefits. NSDUH is a nationally representative annual cross-sectional survey of people 12 years and older. Data were analyzed from February to June 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalence of substance use disorders was estimated using the benchmark multiplier method based on T-MSIS and NSDUH data. Confidence intervals for the multiplier method estimates were computed using Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of prevalence estimates to variations in multiplier values was assessed. RESULTS This study included Medicaid beneficiaries 12 years and older accessing treatment services in the past year with diagnoses of alcohol (n = 1 017 308 in 2018; n = 1 041 357 in 2019), cannabis (n = 643 737; n = 644 780), opioid (n = 1 406 455; n = 1 575 219), and stimulant (n = 610 858; n = 657 305) use disorders and NSDUH participants with 12-month DSM-IV alcohol (n = 3390 in 2018; n = 3363 in 2019), cannabis (n = 1426; n = 1604), opioid (n = 448; n = 369), and stimulant (n = 545; n = 559) use disorders. The benchmark multiplier prevalence estimates were higher than NSDUH estimates for every type of substance use disorder in both years and in the combined 2018 to 2019 sample: 20.27% (95% CI, 17.04-24.71) vs 5.34% (95% CI, 5.10-5.58), respectively, for alcohol; 7.57% (95% CI, 5.96-9.93) vs 1.68% (95% CI, 1.59-1.79) for cannabis; 3.46% (95% CI, 2.97-4.12) vs 0.68% (0.60-0.78) for opioid; and 1.91% (95% CI, 1.63-2.30) vs 0.85% (95% CI, 0.75-0.96) for stimulant use disorders. In sensitivity analyses, the differences between the benchmark multiplier method and NSDUH estimates persisted over a wide range of potential multiplier values. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The findings in this study reflect a higher national prevalence of substance use disorders than that represented by NSDUH estimates, suggesting a greater burden of these conditions in the US.