Using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for hydrological time series prediction

Conventionally, the multiple linear regression procedure has been known as the most popular models in simulating hydrological time series. However, when the nonlinear phenomenon is significant, the multiple linear will fail to develop an appropriate predictive model. Recently, intelligence system approaches such as artificial neural network (ANN) and neuro-fuzzy methods have been used successfully for time series modelling. In most instances for neural networks, multi layer perceptrons (MLPs) that are trained with the back-propagation algorithm have been used. The major shortcoming of this approach is that the knowledge contained in the trained networks is difficult to interpret. Using neuro-fuzzy approaches, which enable the information that is stored in trained networks to be expressed in the form of a fuzzy rule base, would help to overcome this issue. In the present study, a time series neuro-fuzzy model is proposed that is capable of exploiting the strengths of traditional time series approaches. The aim of this article is to investigate the potential of a neuro-fuzzy system with a Sugeno inference engine, considering different numbers of membership functions. Three rivers have been selected and daily prediction for them was applied. For better judgment, outcomes of the network have been compared to an autoregressive model. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.