Risk management in distributed wind energy implementing Analytic Hierarchy Process

被引：74

作者：

Zhou, Shan ^{[1
]}

Yang, Pu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UCL, Bartlett Sch Construct & Project Management, London WC1E 7HB, England

来源：

RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2020年 / 150卷 / 616-623期

关键词：

Distributed wind energy; Risk management; PEST analysis; Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); Quantitative risk analysis; MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING; REAL OPTIONS; GENERATION; INDUSTRY; SYSTEMS; IDENTIFICATION; MULTIPLE; PROJECTS; BENEFITS; ONSHORE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.renene.2019.12.125

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Distributed wind power has received growing attention in recent years. However, high risks remain in its investigation, which severely hindered its development. This study attempts to gather and identify risk factors in distributed wind power through literature reviews and rank the risks based on expert opinions. Based on previous literature, we classified risk for distributed wind power investment into four types, namely the political risks, economic risks, social risks, and technical risks. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to assess risks in the life cycle of the distributed wind farm. Political, Economic, Social and Technical methodology as the criteria hierarchy is introduced to classify the identified risks as the sub-criteria hierarchy in the AHP model. The result shows that the risk of changes in electricity price policy is the most critical impact on the distributed wind power system to obtain sustainable development and make profits. Therefore, the government needs to provide a long-term vision of electricity price policy to promote the development of distributed wind projects. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：616 / 623

页数：8

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