A multi-scenario input-output economy-energy-environment nexus management model for Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration

被引：18

作者：

Li, X. ^{[1
]}

Li, Y. P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Li, G. H. ^{[1
,2
]}

Lv, J. ^{[3
]}

Ma, Y. ^{[1
]}

Li, Y. F. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Ctr Energy Environm & Ecol Res, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada

[3] North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Energy & Environm Res Ctr, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION | 2021年 / 317卷

关键词：

Decision making; Economy-energy-environment nexus; Planning; Scenario analysis; Simulation-optimization; Urban agglomeration; SIMULATION; REDUCTION; EMISSIONS; SYSTEM; RISK;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128402

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Synergistic management of economy-energy-environment nexus (EEEN) system is essential for balancing the tradeoff among economic development, energy supply, and environment conservation. In this study, a multi -scenario input-output economy-energy-environment nexus management (abbreviated as MIO-ENM) model is developed through incorporating input-output model (IOM), scenario analysis, and simulation-optimization techniques within a general framework. MIO-ENM is capable of identifying the main factors affecting the EEEN system as well as generating optimal strategies supporting regional sustainability. The MIO-ENM model is applied to planning EEEN of Pearl River Delta (abbreviated as PRD) urban agglomeration over a long-term planning horizon (2021-2035). Results for planning economic and energy-related activities have been ob-tained, which can be used for further generating decision alternatives. Results disclose that: (i) development of advanced manufacturing and service industry can improve the regional economic efficiency; (ii) under all sce-narios, the proportion of electricity in energy consumption would exceed 35% mainly due to the environmental requirement; (iii) the annual economic growth rate is suggested around 6.0% during 2021-2035; (iv) compared to the conventional approach, the integrated modeling of EEEN can generate optimal joint-management stra-tegies for economy development, energy production, and environmental protection, which are beneficial to the sustainability of the PRD urban agglomeration.

引用

页数：21

共 45 条

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