Analysis of the reliability of a statistical oil spill response model

被引：72

作者：

Abascal, Ana J. ^{[1
]}

Castanedo, Sonia ^{[1
]}

Medina, Raul ^{[1
]}

Liste, Maria ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cantabria, Environm Hydraul Inst IH Cantabria, E-39005 Santander, Spain

来源：

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN | 2010年 / 60卷 / 11期

关键词：

Statistical oil spill model; Lagrangian transport model; Oil spill trajectories; Response planning; Drifter buoys; CANTABRIA BAY; BISCAY; OCEAN; CIRCULATION; SENSITIVITY; CALIBRATION; DRIFTERS; HINDCAST; CURRENTS; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.07.008

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：2099 / 2110

页数：12

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