Regional disaggregation of China's national carbon intensity reduction target by reduction pathway analysis

Chinese government announced it is going to reduce carbon intensity in 2020 by 40 to 45% when compared with 2005 levels. One question for how to accomplish this is how to disaggregate national target to provincial level. This study employed a regional disaggregation approach based on a series of principles. Analysis of the carbon intensity revealed three main approaches to reduce CO2 are energy structure adjustment, technical improvement and energy substitution. We proposed a disaggregation model from the view of reduction approaches. Through the data collection and analysis of provinces from 2005 to 2010, a regional disaggregation scheme is carried out in which the national carbon intensity reduction target during the 12th Five-Year Plan was set at 17%. The calculated regional targets were then compared with official published data. The results showed that this method could be useful for disaggregation of the target to the provincial level. (C) 2014 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.