Statistical comparison of interplanetary conditions causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤-100 nT)

被引:15
作者
Ji, Eun-Young [1 ]
Moon, Y. -J. [2 ,3 ]
Kim, K. -H. [2 ]
Lee, D. -H. [2 ]
机构
[1] Kyung Hee Univ, Dept Astron & Space Sci, Yongin 446701, South Korea
[2] Kyung Hee Univ, Sch Space Res, Yongin 446701, South Korea
[3] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA
关键词
MAGNETIC STORMS; PARAMETERS;
D O I
10.1029/2009JA015112
中图分类号
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号
0704 ;
摘要
It is well known that intense southward magnetic field and convection electric field (V x B) in the interplanetary medium are key parameters that control the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. By investigating the interplanetary conditions of 82 intense geomagnetic storms from 1998 to 2006, we have compared many different criteria of interplanetary conditions for the occurrence of the intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <= -100 nT). In order to examine if the magnetosphere always favors such interplanetary conditions for the occurrence of large geomagnetic storms, we applied these conditions to all the interplanetary data during the same period. For this study, we consider three types of interplanetary conditions as follows: B-z conditions, E-y conditions, and their combination. As a result, we present contingency tables between the number of events satisfying the condition and the number of observed geomagnetic storms. Then we obtain their statistical parameters for evaluation such as probability of detection yes, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index. From a comparison of these statistical parameters, we suggest that three conditions are promising candidates to trigger an intense storm: B-z <= -10 nT for > 3 h, E-y = 5 mV/m for > 2 h, and B-z = -15 nT or E-y >= 5 mV/m for > 2 h. Also, we found that more than half of the "miss" events, when an intense storm occurs that was not expected, are associated with sheath field structures or corotating interacting regions. Our conditions can be used for not only the real-time forecast of geomagnetic storms but also the survey of interplanetary data to identify candidate events for producing intense geomagnetic storms.
引用
收藏
页数:7
相关论文
共 19 条
[1]   Geoeffectiveness of corotating interaction regions as measured by Dst index [J].
Alves, M. V. ;
Echer, E. ;
Gonzalez, W. D. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 2006, 111 (A7)
[2]   EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERPLANETARY CONDITIONS AND DST [J].
BURTON, RK ;
MCPHERRON, RL ;
RUSSELL, CT .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 1975, 80 (31) :4204-4214
[3]   INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD AND AURORAL ZONES [J].
DUNGEY, JW .
PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS, 1961, 6 (02) :47-&
[4]   Interplanetary conditions causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤-100 nT) during solar cycle 23 (1996-2006) [J].
Echer, E. ;
Gonzalez, W. D. ;
Tsurutani, B. T. ;
Gonzalez, A. L. C. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 2008, 113 (A5)
[5]   A UNIFIED VIEW OF SOLAR-WIND MAGNETOSPHERE COUPLING FUNCTIONS [J].
GONZALEZ, WD .
PLANETARY AND SPACE SCIENCE, 1990, 38 (05) :627-632
[6]   CRITERIA OF INTERPLANETARY PARAMETERS CAUSING INTENSE MAGNETIC STORMS (DST LESS-THAN - 100-NT) [J].
GONZALEZ, WD ;
TSURUTANI, BT .
PLANETARY AND SPACE SCIENCE, 1987, 35 (09) :1101-1109
[7]   WHAT IS A GEOMAGNETIC STORM [J].
GONZALEZ, WD ;
JOSELYN, JA ;
KAMIDE, Y ;
KROEHL, HW ;
ROSTOKER, G ;
TSURUTANI, BT ;
VASYLIUNAS, VM .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 1994, 99 (A4) :5771-5792
[8]   How good is the relationship of solar and interplanetary plasma parameters with geomagnetic storms? [J].
Kane, RP .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 2005, 110 (A2)
[9]   Forecast evaluation of the coronal mass ejection (CME) geoeffectiveness using halo CMEs from 1997 to 2003 [J].
Kim, RS ;
Cho, KS ;
Moon, YJ ;
Kim, YH ;
Yi, Y ;
Dryer, M ;
Bong, SC ;
Park, YD .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 2005, 110 (A11)
[10]   An empirical phase space analysis of ring current dynamics: Solar wind control of injection and decay [J].
O'Brien, TP ;
McPherron, RL .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 2000, 105 (A4) :7707-7719