Measured Blood Pressure, Genetically Predicted Blood Pressure, and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the UK Biobank

IMPORTANCE Hypertension remains the major cardiovascular disease risk factor globally, but variability in measured blood pressure may result in suboptimal management. Whether genetic contributors to elevated blood pressure may complementarily inform cardiovascular disease risk assessment is unknown. OBJECTIVE To examine incident cardiovascular disease by blood pressure polygenic risk score independent of measured blood pressures and antihypertensive medication prescriptions. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The cohort study (UK Biobank) recruited UK residents aged 40 to 69 years between March 2006 and August 2010. Participants without a prior physician diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure, were included. Excluded were individuals with mismatch between self-reported and genotypically inferred sex, sex aneuploidy, missing genotype rates of 1% or greater, and excess genotypic heterozygosity. Data analyses were performed from September 25, 2021, to July 21, 2022. EXPOSURES Measured blood pressure and externally derived blood pressure polygenic risk score stratified by hypertension diagnosis and management, which included normal blood pressure (<130/80mmHg without antihypertensives), untreated hypertension (systolic blood pressure >= 130 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure >= 80 mm Hg without antihypertensives), and treated hypertension (current antihypertensives prescriptions). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Composite of first incident myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular-related death. RESULTS Of the 331 078 study participants included (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 56.9 [8.1] years; 178 824 female [54.0%]), 83 094 (25.1%) had normal blood pressure, 197 597 (59.7%) had untreated hypertension, and 50 387 (15.2%) had treated hypertension. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 11.1 (10.4-11.8) years, the primary outcome occurred in 15 293 participants. Among those with normal blood pressure, untreated hypertension, and treated hypertension, each SD increase in measured systolic blood pressure was associated with hazard ratios of 1.08 (95% CI, 0.93-1.25), 1.20 (95% CI, 1.16-1.23), and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.11-1.20), respectively, for the primary outcome. Among these same categories, each SD increase in genetically predicted systolic blood pressure was associated with increased hazard ratios of 1.13 (95% CI, 1.05-1.20), 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01-1.07), and 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02-1.10), respectively, for the primary outcome independent of measured blood pressures and other covariates. Findings were similar for measured and genetically predicted diastolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Blood pressure polygenic risk score may augment identification of individuals at heightened cardiovascular risk, including those with both normal blood pressure and hypertension. Whether it may also guide antihypertensive initiation or intensification requires further study.