Juvenile Delinquency Recidivism: Are Black and White Youth Vulnerable to the Same Risk Factors?

Using large-sample, archival data from the state of South Carolina's juvenile justice agency, we examine the question of race differences in predictors of repeat offending for a sample of approximately 100,000 youth who had been referred for criminal offenses. Independent variables relating to background, adverse parenting, mental health, school-related disabilities, and features of first offenses contributed to more than 25% of the variance in recidivism for both Black and White youth. Male gender, eligibility for free or reduced school lunch, diagnoses based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000), placement in Child Protective Services, and school identification as having a classification of emotional or behavioral disorders or learning disabilities were all predictive of juvenile recidivism. In addition, early age of first offense, status offenses, and being prosecuted for a first offense were significant predictors. Magnitudes of prediction were similar across racial groups, suggesting similar vulnerability of both Black and White youth to these early adversities. Interactions between race and other independent variables accounted for only .001 of the variance in recidivism. However, there were several significant interactions. Mental health history and characteristics of the first offense were stronger predictors for White youth than for Black youth. Gender, poverty (free or reduced lunch), and school identification of having a classification of emotional or behavioral disorders were stronger predictors for Blacks than for Whites. Implications for prevention are addressed.